Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 7.7 | 14.1% | 70 | 0.61% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 7.9 | 14.5% | 72 | 0.53% |
| 20-29 | 5 | 5.6 | 13.5% | 67 | 0.32% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 8.4 | 16.9% | 84 | 0.62% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 5.1 | 11.8% | 59 | 0.56% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 4.3 | 10% | 50 | 0.4% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 3.9 | 9.2% | 46 | 0.4% |
| 70+ | 0 | 5.0 | 10% | 50 | 0.48% |
| All ages | 26 | 47.9 | 100% | 498 | 0.48% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11 | 13253 | 57068 | 476 | 117 | 501 |
| Sep 12 | 13258 | 57087 | 478 | 117 | 438 |
| Sep 13 | 13258 | 57141 | 478 | 117 | 379 |
| Sep 14 | 13307 | 57328 | 482 | 117 | 381 |
| Sep 15 | 13393 | 57534 | 484 | 117 | 421 |
| Sep 16 | 13472 | 57617 | 485 | 117 | 473 |
| Sep 17 | 13498 | 57785 | 487 | 117 | 498 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11 | 8666 | 33517 | 359 | 103 | 386 |
| Sep 12 | 8668 | 33528 | 359 | 103 | 340 |
| Sep 13 | 8687 | 33563 | 359 | 103 | 306 |
| Sep 14 | 8739 | 33653 | 359 | 103 | 324 |
| Sep 15 | 8806 | 33775 | 359 | 103 | 357 |
| Sep 16 | 8851 | 33875 | 359 | 103 | 402 |
| Sep 17 | 8883 | 34001 | 360 | 103 | 422 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 4.1 | 10.4% | 44 | 0.57% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 9.4 | 23% | 97 | 1.15% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 5.6 | 13.3% | 56 | 0.79% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 6.4 | 16.6% | 70 | 0.83% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 5.3 | 11.8% | 50 | 0.64% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 4.1 | 9.7% | 41 | 0.42% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 3.6 | 8.1% | 34 | 0.4% |
| 70+ | 1 | 2.3 | 7.1% | 30 | 0.42% |
| All ages | 32 | 40.9 | 100% | 422 | 0.65% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11 | 6565 | 22393 | 330 | 85 | 294 |
| Sep 12 | 6582 | 22396 | 330 | 85 | 285 |
| Sep 13 | 6594 | 22419 | 330 | 85 | 248 |
| Sep 14 | 6617 | 22480 | 332 | 85 | 243 |
| Sep 15 | 6681 | 22577 | 337 | 85 | 279 |
| Sep 16 | 6760 | 22635 | 338 | 85 | 341 |
| Sep 17 | 6783 | 22715 | 339 | 85 | 358 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 4.4 | 11.7% | 42 | 0.77% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 5.4 | 15.1% | 54 | 0.99% |
| 20-29 | 5 | 4.4 | 12.8% | 46 | 1.02% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 5.1 | 13.4% | 48 | 0.88% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 5.4 | 14.2% | 51 | 1.02% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 4.7 | 12.3% | 44 | 0.65% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 3.3 | 9.2% | 33 | 0.52% |
| 70+ | 0 | 4.1 | 11.2% | 40 | 0.63% |
| All ages | 23 | 37.0 | 100% | 358 | 0.79% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11 | 14191 | 65096 | 560 | 98 | 393 |
| Sep 12 | 14196 | 65121 | 560 | 98 | 364 |
| Sep 13 | 14225 | 65236 | 560 | 98 | 344 |
| Sep 14 | 14264 | 65403 | 561 | 98 | 349 |
| Sep 15 | 14365 | 65664 | 567 | 99 | 387 |
| Sep 16 | 14436 | 65847 | 567 | 99 | 431 |
| Sep 17 | 14512 | 66037 | 571 | 99 | 502 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 4.3 | 8.6% | 43 | 0.36% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 8.6 | 15.9% | 80 | 0.48% |
| 20-29 | 8 | 7.4 | 15.1% | 76 | 0.36% |
| 30-39 | 13 | 7.9 | 15.1% | 76 | 0.56% |
| 40-49 | 14 | 8.4 | 15.5% | 78 | 0.57% |
| 50-59 | 13 | 7.7 | 13.1% | 66 | 0.47% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 3.7 | 6.4% | 32 | 0.23% |
| 70+ | 10 | 5.3 | 10.2% | 51 | 0.39% |
| All ages | 76 | 53.3 | 100% | 502 | 0.42% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11 | 50256 | 390171 | 1763 | 326 | 1135 |
| Sep 12 | 50285 | 390320 | 1763 | 326 | 986 |
| Sep 13 | 50309 | 390894 | 1764 | 326 | 892 |
| Sep 14 | 50440 | 391921 | 1778 | 326 | 890 |
| Sep 15 | 50635 | 393147 | 1782 | 326 | 1025 |
| Sep 16 | 50868 | 393890 | 1794 | 327 | 1145 |
| Sep 17 | 51080 | 395250 | 1800 | 327 | 1276 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 16 | 15.7 | 11.2% | 143 | 0.24% |
| 10-19 | 39 | 29.4 | 21.1% | 269 | 0.38% |
| 20-29 | 47 | 28.4 | 21.6% | 276 | 0.27% |
| 30-39 | 34 | 20.1 | 14% | 179 | 0.23% |
| 40-49 | 23 | 14.1 | 10.8% | 138 | 0.21% |
| 50-59 | 21 | 13.0 | 9.7% | 124 | 0.19% |
| 60-69 | 21 | 8.7 | 6.3% | 81 | 0.15% |
| 70+ | 11 | 7.1 | 5.2% | 66 | 0.13% |
| All ages | 212 | 136.7 | 100% | 1276 | 0.23% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11 | 680620 | 3205690 | 36884 | 7757 | 17488 |
| Sep 12 | 681203 | 3207149 | 36916 | 7759 | 15730 |
| Sep 13 | 681627 | 3211566 | 36950 | 7759 | 14172 |
| Sep 14 | 683717 | 3221330 | 37103 | 7771 | 14327 |
| Sep 15 | 687101 | 3233147 | 37300 | 7791 | 16576 |
| Sep 16 | 690542 | 3243034 | 37419 | 7806 | 19079 |
| Sep 17 | 693737 | 3255875 | 37508 | 7827 | 21465 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 285 | 263.1 | 12.1% | 2587 | 0.4% |
| 10-19 | 562 | 447.1 | 19.6% | 4206 | 0.56% |
| 20-29 | 514 | 301.6 | 14% | 3005 | 0.4% |
| 30-39 | 555 | 343.6 | 15.2% | 3268 | 0.43% |
| 40-49 | 450 | 283.4 | 12.9% | 2779 | 0.4% |
| 50-59 | 391 | 240.3 | 10.8% | 2324 | 0.29% |
| 60-69 | 259 | 178.6 | 8.2% | 1766 | 0.23% |
| 70+ | 179 | 155.7 | 7.1% | 1530 | 0.24% |
| All ages | 3195 | 2213.4 | 100% | 21465 | 0.37% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.7 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-10-09 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 7343"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges